It's Complicated

That is the recent refrain of Senate Banking Committee Republicans when asked about the financial services regulatory reform bill now pending in the Senate.

While Republicans have expressed continued willingness to work with committee Democrats to develop bipartisan legislation that would address the root causes of the recent financial crisis, they appear in no hurry to pass a bill—and certainly not what they consider a “bad bill”—just for the sake of having a bill.

As a whole, Senate Banking Committee Republicans think the Dodd bill and the House-passed reform bill go too far. Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) seems well aware of that fact and, as reported previously, has constituted numerous working groups to hammer out the various issues. Those groups are currently working together to resolve outstanding issues, with varying degrees of progress.

While the committee has been expected to mark-up its version of the financial reform bill in February, that schedule will depend upon the level of progress and bipartisanship the committee is able to achieve. One major stumbling block has been the establishment of a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA)—a signature issue of the Obama Administration. Chairman Dodd has reportedly expressed a willingness to move away from the CFPA in a favor of giving more consumer protection authority to existing prudential regulators—a position also favored by committee Republicans.

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Dodd Retiring

Sen. Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd's (D-CT) announcement that he will not seek re-election has roiled the already choppy waters surrounding the financial reform legislation. The Financial Reform Watch team has been intrigued by the comments attibuted to congressional and industry sources indicating that his retirement may increase the opportunity for a bipartisan bill. We are not so sure.

While we would all like to think that respect for a departing colleague and the desire of Senators to help him cement his legacy would result in more cooperation, there is little evidence to suggest today's Senate operates on that principle. We need only look back as far as the consideration of health care reform to support our view. Early in 2009, many thought the illness of Sen. Ted Kennedy would spur Senators to help him achieve his goal of more than 30 years to achieve health care reform. After his death, there was even more talk of how Senators might be moved to seek accommodation in his memory. Clearly, those sentiments—if they ever existed—were overwhelmed by the deep partisan divide in the Senate.

Today, those who indicate that bipartisanship might emerge in the wake of Dodd's announcement seem to believe he will be more accommodating of GOP concerns over certain issues—particularly the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Our contacts on the Hill suggest that creation of that agency is as close to non-negotiable for the Administration and Sen. Dodd, not to mention House leaders, as any issue in the package. If the price of GOP support for the bill is dropping that, we are doubtful we will see much bipartisanship.

So our assessment is that is is too early to say whether Dodd's retirement improves or diminishes chances for a bill to be enacted. Your FRW team will be monitoring the situation closely and will keep you apprised of developments.