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After 15 months of unprecedented intervention in the secondary mortgage market, the Federal Reserve—currently the proud owner of nearly 25 percent of mortgage debts—is calling it quits. The Fed's $1.25 trillion emergency program to stabilize the U.S. housing market through the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) officially expires today.

First announced in November 2008, the Fed initiative to purchase MBS issued by government sponsored enterprises (GSEs )—including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae—has largely been viewed as a catalyst in spurring the nascent recoveries in both the housing and stock markets, helping to lower home mortgage rates and free up capital for private investors. In particular, market analysts credit the Fed purchasing program with paving the way for a record $375.4 billion of investments into bond mutual funds in 2009, as lower returns on mortgage securities led investors to corporate bonds, equities, and other riskier assets.

At a time when the U.S. economy remains fragile, the Fed’s departure from the housing sector may help determine just how fragile economic conditions really are. For months, market observers have raised concerns that a Fed exit could cause significant spikes in mortgage rates, leading to higher foreclosures and a slump in investor confidence. In fact, Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac’s February announcement that they will repurchase $200 billion in delinquent mortgage loans, was a tacit acknowledgement that government backstops cannot be removed swiftly.

However, a number of analysts are also predicting that the effects of the Fed pullout will be rather minimal, as the current shortage of AAA-rated debt has made private fund managers increasingly eager to begin reinvesting in MBS, especially when such securities are backed by propped-up GSEs like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In addition, these analysts also project that U.S. banks—which have steadily increased capital levels and are now flush with extra cash—will step up to fill the void left by the Fed.

The role of both Fannie and Freddie in ensuring a smooth transition for the housing finance system will be something to watch closely over the next few months. The GSEs are under intensified scrutiny on Capitol Hill, as the Obama administration prepares a sweeping proposal for a GSE overhaul. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Congress last week that the administration will initiate a public comment period on April 15 in order to solicit ideas for Fannie and Freddie’s restructuring.
 

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For over a year, financial regulatory reform has taken a backseat to health care. With the passage of the health care bill, financial reform will finally be at the top of the agenda when Congress returns from its two-week spring recess on April 12th. While several Senators, including Republicans Judd Gregg (R-NH) and Bob Corker (R-TN), have said financial reform has an 80 to 100 percent chance of passing, there are still many loose ends to tie before the bill goes to the floor.

On March 22nd, the Senate Banking Committee approved the Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010 along a party line vote of 13 to 10, taking up no amendments other than Chairman Dodd’s manager’s package. If Dodd wants to bring a bipartisan bill to the floor, which he has said he does, that work will mostly take place behind the scenes between now and mid-May, when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said the bill could receive floor time.

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This afternoon at 5 p.m. the Senate Banking Committee will meet and likely adopt along party lines Chairman Chris Dodd's "Manager's Amendment" to his financial regulatory reform draft unveiled earlier this month. Instead of dedicating a week or more to consideration of the 473 amendments filed by committee members -- 98 of which were filed by Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) -- Dodd decided to incorporate a fraction of the amendments into one roughly 100-page package and then move the bill swiftly and successfully out of committee.

Corker said this morning that he was disappointed about the process, since he had hoped to work through many of the issues in a bipartisan fashion within the Banking Committee.  Assuming things go as predicted tonight, many compromises to the bill will be worked out behind the scenes prior to floor consideration, while still other issues will play out on the Senate floor.

Corker still believes the bill has a 90 percent chance of passing ultimately and thinks that there may be a "better opportunity with a different cast of characters -- the full Senate -- to do something policywise."
 

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Taking a pivotal step towards the enactment of comprehensive financial regulatory reform, this afternoon Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-CT) released the Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010, which includes broad revisions to legislation that Dodd introduced in November and represents the base bill for a full committee markup that is slated to begin next week.

The introduction of the Dodd bill comes amidst increasingly protracted negotiations between the chairman and his fellow banking committee members Richard Shelby (R-AL) and Bob Corker (R-TN), which were halted before both sides could hash out bipartisan compromises on several significant policy issues—including the authority of a proposed Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and a newly-created process for winding down large and interconnected financial institutions. But according to Dodd, the Senate’s dwindling timeline for action was the most immediate factor driving his decision; while others are viewing Dodd’s move as an effort to ramp up the political pressure on Senate Republicans by bringing the debate out in the open.

Below are the bill’s highlights:

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