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Troubled Asset Relief Program – 2 years old, of Washington, D.C., passed away quietly on Sunday, surrounded by friends and supporters (excluding elected officials), as the Treasury’s authority to make new investments under the influential, yet politically reviled $700 billion program officially expired.

Offering its pre-written eulogy on Friday, the Treasury Department sought to highlight TARP’s legacy on the U.S. financial sector during its short, active and tumultuous life.

“Looking back, it’s clear that TARP has played a critical role in stabilizing the financial system during a period of historic crisis and has helped put our country on the path to economic recovery – at a fraction of that initiative’s original projected cost,” stated a Treasury press release on October 1, buoyed by recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) figures that predict TARP losses to the taxpayer of $66 billion, down from the most recent Treasury estimates of $105 billion.

Born in the thick of the 2008 financial crisis, TARP was created under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA), an expedited congressional response to heightening fears that an economic collapse was imminent. Garnering significant bipartisan support in both congressional chambers, the EESA passed the Senate on October 1 by a vote of 74-25 (with 34 Republicans supporting) and two days later in the House by a vote of 263-171 (with 91 Republicans supporting) and was then quickly signed into law by President Bush.

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Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced this morning that, in anticipation of some large institutions paying back their TARP money, the department plans to re-open the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) for small banks with total assets under $500 million. Since the launch of the program in November, 579 institutions have received money through the CPP, 300 of which are small banks. Treasury will soon open a six month window during which new banks can apply, current CPP participants can reapply, and small banks can “form a holding company for the purposes of CPP.” Participants already in the CPP will have an “expedited approval process.” Treasury is raising the amount for which qualifying institutions can apply from 3 percent to 5 percent of risk-weighted assets. Presumably more details about the re-opened program will be forthcoming.

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At 5 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time today, the Federal Reserve and Treasury unveiled the official results of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP), revealing that ten of the 19 participating banks need to increase their capital buffers for a combined total of $74.6 billion. The SCAP conducted stress tests on the nation’s largest bank holding companies to predict “potential losses, the resources available to absorb losses, and the resulting capital buffer needed” based on various economic scenarios.

The banks needing to increase their capital buffers will have to work with their primary regulators, in consultation with the FDIC, to develop a capital plan sometime in the next 30 days (by June 8, 2009), and they will have six months to implement the plans (by November 9, 2009).

Each capital plan must contain the following three elements:

• A detailed description of specific actions the bank will take to increase capital in order to satisfy the capital buffer requirement. Treasury and the Fed encourage banks to raise new capital from private sources.
• A list of steps to address weaknesses in the bank’s internal processes for assessing capital needs and engaging in capital planning.
• An outline of steps the bank will take over time to repay government-provided capital.

As part of their 30 day review process, banks are also directed to evaluate their existing management and board of directors to make certain their leadership has the capability to “manage the risks presented by the current economic environment and maintain balance sheet capacity sufficient to continue prudent lending to meet the credit needs of the economy.”

The banks needing to increase their capital buffer (amounts in billions) are Bank of America ($33.9); Citi ($5.5); FifthThird ($1.1); GMAC ($11.5); KeyCorp ($1.8); Morgan Stanley ($1.8); PNC ($0.6); Regions ($2.5); SunTrust ($2.2); and Wells Fargo ($13.7). See the Fed report for more details.

Federal Reserve: Supervisory Capital Assessment Program - Overview of Results (PDF)

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Call it green shoots or mustard seeds or hope, but according to some of the nation's leading economic experts, the outlook for the American economy is improving. These experts are venturing the opinion that the economy has hit bottom and the recession is ending. Some of the evidence cited is the fall in unemployment claims from March to April; the first quarter increases in consumer spending and consumer prices; and the stabilization in sales of existing and new homes over the past couple of months. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded optimistic (for a Fed Chairman) about the recovery. During testimony before the Joint Economic Committee this morning, Bernanke said, “We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year.” Although he qualified his statement as dependent on a restored and healthy financial system, that too could be interpreted as a positive sign since the Fed is supposed to go over stress test results with the affected banks today.

Bernanke did not comment on the test results, but media leaks suggest that ten of the 19 banks will need to find more capital. The results are not supposed to be publicly available until later this week, but markets rallied somewhat yesterday based on White House spokesman Robert Gibbs’ comments that the administration does not anticipate needing more financial bailout money from Congress and suggesting the banks will be able to raise private capital.

Since unemployment is a lagging indicator, most experts predict it will be a few months before people feel the effects of an economic upturn. If the economy is pronounced in recovery by the fall, it will be far enough into his presidency that President Obama will likely receive appreciable credit . The potential return to better times could add momentum to a major administration priority: health care reform. Despite the White House Chief of Staff’s strategy of capitalizing on a crisis, we suspect the White House will find it is much easier to score congressional victories when there is hope on the horizon rather than fear.

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This afternoon, the Federal Reserve released its white paper explaining the “design and implementation” of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP), more popularly known as the stress tests applied to the nation’s largest banks. The Fed said most banks have capital “well in excess of the amounts required to be well capitalized.” That said, it found that the nation’s 19 largest banks, including the banks they acquired, have together lost approximately $400 billion in the six quarters leading up to the end of 2008.

The SCAP required the banks to submit data and projections to their financial regulators in early March. The bank supervising agencies assigned over 150 of their supervisors, examiners, analysts, and economists working in teams to “conduct a comprehensive and consistent assessment simultaneously across the 19 largest BHCs [bank holding companies] using a common set of macroeconomic scenarios, and a common forward-looking conceptual framework.”

The goal of the SCAP is to determine how much capital these systemically significant banks should hold in order to “absorb losses should the economic downturn be longer and deeper than now expected.” Firms that will be required to “augment” their capital to create a buffer, will have the options of tapping the Treasury’s Capital Assistance Program; applying “to Treasury to exchange their existing Capital Purchase Program Preferred stock to help meet their buffer requirement;” and/or raising private capital. The Fed stressed that SCAP results requiring a bank to build a buffer should not be viewed as “a measure of the current solvency or viability of the firm.”

The SCAP results will not be made public until May 4th.

Federal Reserve: The Supervisory Capital Assessment Program - Design and Implementation (PDF)

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The Treasury Department this week released the terms for mutual holding companies and mutual banks to apply for TARP Capital Purchase Program funds. The application deadline is May 7, 2009 for mutual holding companies and May 14th for mutual banks. Links to the detailed documents are below.

Treasury Releases Capital Purchase Program Term Sheets for Mutual Holding Companies

Treasury Releases Capital Purchase Program Term Sheet for Mutual Banks

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The Treasury Department yesterday afternoon began to release some much anticipated details of the Obama Administration’s Financial Stability Plan first announced on February 10th—TARP re-branded. Yesterday was all about the Capital Assistance Program (CAP) and the related "stress test" that regulators will perform on the 19 largest banks, those with consolidated assets in excess of $100 billion. Treasury announced,

"The purpose of the CAP is to restore confidence throughout the financial system that the nation’s largest banking institutions have a sufficient capital cushion against larger than expected future losses, should they occur due to a more severe economic environment, and to support lending to creditworthy borrowers."

If the stress test shows that a bank needs a larger capital buffer, then the bank has six months to raise the necessary amount of private capital or access the CAP, which Treasury describes as "a bridge to private capital in the future." The CAP funds would be available to the bank immediately.

The administration stressed it wants to keep government ownership temporary and will encourage replacing the government’s stake with private capital. Additionally, the Treasury announced it would set up a separate trust "to manage the government’s investments in US financial institutions."  There were no further details about the trust, but Financial Reform Watch will continue to monitor this.

Treasury:  The Capital Assistance Program and its role in the Financial Stability Plan (PDF)

Treasury: Capital Assistance Program FAQs (PDF)

Treasury: Capital Assistance Program Term Sheet (PDF)

Federal Reserve/FDIC: Supervisory Capital Assistance Program FAQs (PDF)

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There is a new team in town, and in one of his first public acts as Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner established a policy aimed at increasing the transparency and accountability of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Treasury will now post all TARP contracts on the Internet. New contracts will go on Treasury’s website within five to ten business days, and the department will post existing agreements on a rolling basis. At the time of the Secretary’s announcement, Treasury had already posted the agreements of the major nine institutions that first partook in the Capital Purchase Program; the Citigroup contract under the Targeted Investment Program; the AIG deal under the Systemically Significant Failing Institutions Program; and the GM, GMAC, and Chrysler contracts under the Automotive Industry Financing Program. At the request of individual institutions, the department will redact confidential and proprietary information.

The Secretary also met today with the individuals tasked with TARP oversight – the head of the General Accounting Office, the TARP Special Inspector General at Treasury, and the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel. Geithner promised to unveil more reforms in the coming weeks.

U.S. Department of Treasury, EESA Contracts

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The Federal Reserve announced two new programs today, committing an additional $800 billion in order to spur lending. U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson also announced that $20 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) would be used to support one of the programs. The first, worth $600 billion, is aimed at helping the housing market; and the second Fed program, worth $200 billion, is directed at thawing the frozen consumer credit markets.

The Fed announced this morning that it will "initiate a program to purchase the direct obligations of housing-related government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)—Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks—and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae." The Fed will work with "primary dealers through a series of competitive auctions" for purchases of up to $100 billion in "GSE direct obligations" beginning next week. For purchases of up to $500 billion in MBS, the Fed will select asset-managers through a competitive process and plans to start these purchases before the end of the year. The Fed said in a release that it will provide operational details after "consultation with market participants," and added that "Purchases of both direct obligations and MBS are expected to take place over several quarters."

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In another indication of the knock-on effects of the financial crisis, the auto industry's number one supporter in Congress suffered a preliminary defeat today in his effort to retain a powerful House committee chairmanship. House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-MI) failed to get enough Democratic leadership votes today to retain his chairmanship over challenger Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA). The Democratic Steering Committee, a leadership organization responsible for determining Democratic committee assignments, voted for Waxman by a vote of 25-22. Waxman is one of the most liberal members of Congress and a champion of environmental issues. Many environmental activists believe that Dingell has spent too long protecting the auto industry, which has resulted in a weakened industry that has failed to produce the cleaner, more efficient cars that consumers want.

The good news for Dingell is he gets a do-over with the full Democratic Caucus which is likely to vote tomorrow to accept or reject the steering committee decision. Dingell believes he has enough votes to prevail over Waxman. The two-dozen incoming Democratic freshmen will participate in that vote, and some believe that Waxman, who endorsed Barack Obama in the Democratic primary, will have more sway with the freshman class. Dingell, who endorsed Hillary Clinton, is expected to draw support from politically moderate members and older members, who are committed to preserving the seniority system.

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Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson today announced the Treasury Department will assist nonbank financial institutions with Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds and that the department will not use any funds for the original stated purpose of the program—the purchase of troubled assets from banks. The announcement of his intention to provide assistance to nonbank institutions represents a new step for Paulson. In making the announcement, the Secretary acknowledged that Treasury has not worked through the issue of funding organizations that are not federally regulated, however they are “designing further strategies for building capital in financial institutions,” and he said, “We will also consider capital needs of non-bank financial institutions not eligible for the current Capital Purchase Program.” He focused his remarks on the importance of shoring up the asset-backed securitization market by working with the Federal Reserve to develop a liquidity facility for AAA securities. Paulson acknowledged the need to “get lending going again,” and said, “While this securitization effort is targeted at consumer financing, the program we are evaluating may also be used to support new commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities lending.”

The accompanying announcement that Treasury does not intend to use TARP funds to purchase troubled assets as originally planned was a surprise to most observers. Paulson said he would seek to address the liquidity issues in the mortgage finance market by making additional capital available to banks if those funds were matched with private capital.

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On Wednesday, just one day after Senator Barack Obama won the presidency, the Treasury Department detailed how it planned to borrow a record $550 billion before the end of this year to back the bailout. Treasury said it would sell $55 billion in bonds next week, including a reintroduction of the three-year note—all part of a massive borrowing effort required because of the cost of the bailout and a budget deficit that some believe could hit nearly $1 trillion next year.
The government's surging financing needs are a stark reminder of the challenges awaiting the Obama Administration even as the current administration moves to implement its rescue program and the Fed fine-tunes its approach to the crisis. Treasury Secretary Paulson has pledged to work with incoming administration to ensure a smooth transition.

Treasury gave Congress its first report on the operation of the bailout fund, detailing the $125 billion the government spent last week to buy stakes in nine of the country's largest banks. The bailout legislation requires Treasury to issue reports each time its spending passes a $50 billion marker.

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Based on conversations with sources on Capitol Hill and administration officials, it now seems somewhat less likely the Treasury Department will expand its Capital Purchase Program (CPP) to include the insurance industry. Some life insurers may have publicly overstated their discussions with Treasury, leading to press accounts and misperceptions that the issue had been resolved.
Likewise, sources say Treasury is unlikely to assist the auto industry with funds from the $700 billion financial rescue package unless Congress makes legislative changes.

However, there is one scenario under which two leading auto makers might be able to get some Treasury assistance. GMAC LLC, which is the lending arm of General Motors, is owned 51 percent by Cerberus Capital Management and 49 percent by GM. Cerberus could become a bank holding company in order to qualify for EESA assistance. According to the Wall Street Journal, the federal rules for this would require GM to transfer much of its GMAC holdings to Cerberus so that GM would own less than 24.9 percent of the voting shares and would have no controlling interest in GMAC. Transforming into a bank holding company would enable GMAC to participate in Treasury’s Capital Purchase Program. Additionally, since Cerberus owns 80.1 percent of Chrysler, which is in merger talks with GM, the companies may be able to structure a deal in which Cerberus would exchange Chrysler shares for GMAC shares.

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Developments surrounding the Treasury's Capital Purchase Program (CPP) in recent days are causing the Department to take a hard look at the justifications for federal investment in industries beyond those federally regulated. Appeals from the insurance and the auto industry are both being reviewed.

It appears the insurance industry proposals are getting the strongest consideration at present, but there are clearly some cross-currents at work that are complicating the decision about whether or not to include them in the CPP. Reflecting that duality, Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial institutions, David Nason, appeared on CNBC’s "Squawk Box" this morning and indicated that there is some difficulty for Treasury to assess the capital needs of an industry that does not fall under federal regulation. He noted that while for the banking industry Treasury is relying on federal regulatory agencies, there is no such federal role in the insurance industry. On the other hand, he noted that it may be important for the stability of the financial sector to expand the CPP to cover insurance. Treasury is evaluating that question as well.

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A short time ago, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced some much-awaited details about the Department’s Capital Purchase Program (CPP). The Treasury will invest $250 billion of capital to U.S. financial institutions in the form of preferred stock. Nine of the largest banks have already agreed to participate in the CPP, which leaves $125 billion remaining. Paulson stressed that the program will not be implemented on a first-come-first-served basis, stating, "Sufficient capital has been allocated so that all qualifying banks can participate."

The Department has developed a single application form for qualified, interested banks to submit to their primary federal regulator—the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of Comptroller of the Currency, or the Office of Thrift Supervision. Once a bank’s primary regulator reviews the application, the regulator will forward the bank’s application to Treasury’s Office of Financial Stability for approval. Paulson said Treasury will "give considerable weight" to the recommendations of the federal regulators. The terms will be the same for all applicants, and regulators will use a standardized review process. Treasury will announce all transactions within 48 hours of execution; however, the Treasury will not publicly reveal any applications that are withdrawn or denied. The application deadline remains November 14, 2008.

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Many unresolved issues continue to surround the financial relief program as evidenced by a flurry of diverse actions today. The nation’s banking regulators—the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Agency, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Thrift Supervision—issued a joint release about tax relief for banking organizations that have suffered losses on their Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac holdings. The regulators will allow banking organizations “to recognize the effect of the tax change enacted in Section 301 of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA) in their third quarter 2008 regulatory capital calculations.” Without today’s decision, banking institutions would not have seen any tax benefit until the fourth quarter of 2008.

Also today, leaders of the Independent Community Bankers Association (ICBA) met with President Bush and Secretary Paulson to discuss the Treasury’s capital purchase program. The FDIC will be the main overseer of that program; however, institutions’ primary regulators (e.g., OCC or OTS) will assist the FDIC. The Treasury has released some details of the program, but according to an ICBA press release, more details are needed. Association leaders urged Treasury to provide “details on how mutual, Subchapter S corporation, privately held and non-publicly traded community banks can participate.”

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As the stock market continues its seesaw sessions this week, the Treasury Department is focusing on implementation of the programs that flow from the financial rescue package assembled in recent weeks.

After Monday's announcement of the capital infusion to the nine largest US banks, attention is turning to the thousands of community and regional banks nationwide that may be eligible for assistance from the capital purchase program. The Treasury Department has announced that November 14 is the deadline for institutions to get their applications in for assistance under the program. Our report on Tuesday, October 14 included the details of the capital purchase program.

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Treasury Department officials confirmed overnight their plan to allocate the first $250 billion of the $700 billion financial rescue package not for the purchase of troubled assets, as originally contemplated, but to inject capital into nine of the nation's largest banks in exchange for preferred shares. Calling it the TARP Capital Purchase Program, President Bush is expected to certify today that the next $100 million of the plan is required for release per the provisions of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.

Here is how the funds will be distributed:

Citigroup $25 billion
JP Morgan Chase $25 billion
Bank of America $25 billion (including $5 billion for its Merrill Lynch acquisition)
Wells Fargo $25 billion (including $5 billion for its Wachovia acquisition)
Goldman Sachs $10 billion
Morgan Stanley $10 billion
Bank of New York $2-3 billion
Mellon Bank $2-3 billion
State Street Bank $2-3 billion
TOTAL $126 - 129 billion.

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