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After 15 months of unprecedented intervention in the secondary mortgage market, the Federal Reserve—currently the proud owner of nearly 25 percent of mortgage debts—is calling it quits. The Fed's $1.25 trillion emergency program to stabilize the U.S. housing market through the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) officially expires today.

First announced in November 2008, the Fed initiative to purchase MBS issued by government sponsored enterprises (GSEs )—including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae—has largely been viewed as a catalyst in spurring the nascent recoveries in both the housing and stock markets, helping to lower home mortgage rates and free up capital for private investors. In particular, market analysts credit the Fed purchasing program with paving the way for a record $375.4 billion of investments into bond mutual funds in 2009, as lower returns on mortgage securities led investors to corporate bonds, equities, and other riskier assets.

At a time when the U.S. economy remains fragile, the Fed’s departure from the housing sector may help determine just how fragile economic conditions really are. For months, market observers have raised concerns that a Fed exit could cause significant spikes in mortgage rates, leading to higher foreclosures and a slump in investor confidence. In fact, Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac’s February announcement that they will repurchase $200 billion in delinquent mortgage loans, was a tacit acknowledgement that government backstops cannot be removed swiftly.

However, a number of analysts are also predicting that the effects of the Fed pullout will be rather minimal, as the current shortage of AAA-rated debt has made private fund managers increasingly eager to begin reinvesting in MBS, especially when such securities are backed by propped-up GSEs like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In addition, these analysts also project that U.S. banks—which have steadily increased capital levels and are now flush with extra cash—will step up to fill the void left by the Fed.

The role of both Fannie and Freddie in ensuring a smooth transition for the housing finance system will be something to watch closely over the next few months. The GSEs are under intensified scrutiny on Capitol Hill, as the Obama administration prepares a sweeping proposal for a GSE overhaul. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Congress last week that the administration will initiate a public comment period on April 15 in order to solicit ideas for Fannie and Freddie’s restructuring.
 

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Not surprisingly, the Federal Reserve announced today that it is extending the TALF program from the December 31, 2009 deadline to March 31, 2010 for newly issued ABS and legacy CMBS and to June 30, 2010 for newly issued CMBS. While the Fed acknowledges that conditions in the financial markets have improved, it still views the markets for asset backed securities and commercial mortgage backed securities as "impaired." The Fed is also leaving the door open to further extensions should conditions warrant. Another outstanding issue is whether to expand the TALF to include other types of eligible collateral. The Fed said in its announcement that it and Treasury will reconsider the issue "if financial or economic developments indicate that providing TALF financing for investors' acquisitions of additional types of securities is warranted."

Federal Reserve Press Release, August 17, 2009

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After nearly four months of delay, the Treasury on Wednesday launched the Legacy Securities program—a key component of the administration’s Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) aimed at relieving financial institutions of illiquid assets that continue to hamper the flow of credit markets.

Scaling back the scope of the Legacy Securities program as originally envisioned in March, the Treasury, together with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve, offered a framework that will provide government investments of up to $30 billion so that private sector fund managers and private investors might purchase legacy commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and non-agency MBS off the balance sheets of banks and other financial institutions.

Selected from a pool of over 100 applicants, below is a list of the nine private fund managers pre-qualified by Treasury to participate in the initial round of the Legacy Securities program:

• AllianceBernstein, LP and its sub-advisors Greenfield Partners, LLC and Rialto Capital Management, LLC
• Angelo, Gordon & Co., L.P. and GE Capital Real Estate
• BlackRock, Inc.
• Invesco Ltd.
• Marathon Asset Management, L.P.
• Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.
• RLJ Western Asset Management, LP.
• The TCW Group, Inc.
• Wellington Management Company, LLP

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The Federal Reserve announced this afternoon that starting in June, commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) would be eligible assets for the Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). The Fed is also expanding the term on some CMBS TALF loans to five years, up from three year terms for other assets. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York plans to set up a separate TALF subscription cycle for CMBS, which will occur later each month than the regular TALF cycle. The longer-term CMBS loans will also have larger haircuts.

Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (CMBS): Terms and Conditions

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Some surprises were included in today's announcement by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury on new developments with the soon-to-be $1 trillion Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). Of particular note is the statement that the two agencies will push for legislation to re-tool the program.

According to the joint release, the TALF is “designed to catalyze the securitization markets by providing financing to investors to support the purchase of certain AAA-rated asset-backed securities” and will at first be limited to newly and recently originated auto, credit card, student, and SBA-guaranteed small business loans. The TALF funds will go out monthly starting in March, and they are already anticipating a program expansion for April that will include “asset backed securities (ABS) backed by rental, commercial, and government vehicle fleet leases and ABS backed by small ticket equipment, heavy equipment, and agricultural equipment.” The Treasury and the Fed are also analyzing how to expand the program in future months to include commercial mortgage backed securities and other AAA-rated, newly issued ABS.

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Events of yesterday continued to demonstrate how major elements of the current financial crisis are interrelated. First, with the world waiting to see how a new administration in Washington will approach the financial crisis, President Bush's announcement of a November 15 summit of international leaders puts the discussion of a new regulatory regime for the financial sector squarely in the middle of the U.S. presidential transition. While both Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama praised the summit, it will present the winner of the November 4 election with an interesting quandary—how to participate in and/or react to the event. It may also force the hand of the President-Elect to name his economic team before the summit takes place. Doing so will allow the administration-in-waiting to have a more organized response to the events of the summit.

Second, the impacts of the financial crisis on the U.S. auto industry may be putting additional pressure on the $700 billion rescue package enacted on October 3. As potential car buyers continue to face a credit crunch, bipartisan leaders of the Michigan congressional delegation yesterday urged the Treasury to make a portion of the funds available to back auto loans. The request came from House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair John Dingell (D-MI) and Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI). If Treasury takes up that suggestion, funds available to supply capital to community banks or purchased troubled mortgages would be reduced.

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World stock markets responded well this morning to the emerging consensus among European and U.S. officials to focus on capitalizing banks with government funds in exchange for an ownership stake in them. Wednesday's announcement from U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown that he plans to inject capital directly into banks and to guarantee interbank lending accelerated momentum for similar moves by the United States and European central bankers. Meetings on Friday and over the weekend among the G7 finance ministers and at the International Monetary Fund in Washington helped to bring these key players into alignment.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department took further steps to implement the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). In a speech this morning before the Institute of International Bankers, acting assistant secretary of the Office of Financial Stability (OFS) Neel Kashkari outlined progress and the seven internal policy teams established to execute the TARP: 

1. Mortgage-backed Securities Purchase Program—will examine which assets to purchase, from whom, and how
2. Whole Loan Purchase Program—will work with bank regulators to determine which loans to purchase first, how to value them, and how to purchase them
3. Insurance Program—on Friday, Treasury solicited public comments on how to insure troubled assets; comments are due within 14 days, at which point OFS will develop the program
4. Equity Purchase Program—will establish a standardized program to buy equity in a broad array of financial institutions; program will be voluntary with attractive terms so healthy institutions will participate and also raise private capital to complement public capital
5. Homeownership Preservation—will work with the Department of Housing and Urban Development to help homeowners when the Treasury purchases mortgages and mortgage-backed securities
6. Executive Compensation Program—will define firms’ participation requirements for three scenarios: auction purchase of troubled assets, broad equity or direct purchase program, and an intervention to prevent the failure of a systemically significant firm
7. Compliance Program—will set up the Oversight Board, the on-site participation of the General Accounting Office, the selection of a special inspector general, and all the reporting mechanisms

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Between the bookends of last night's presidential debate and tomorrow's 4:15 p.m. kickoff of the Redskins-Cowboys game, official Washington is working hard to reach a compromise financial rescue plan. Staff members from both parties and both Houses of Congress met into the wee hours of the morning today on the legislation. Leaders hope to announce a plan on Sunday before the Asian markets open for their Monday sessions. Votes in the House and Senate are currently planned for Monday.

Staff members are meeting as this is written. The lead negotiators on the package are expected to meet this afternoon to review staff progress. As we noted in our final update yesterday, negotiators appear ready to graft onto the package a proposal from the House GOP to allow Treasury the option to develop an insurance program to support mortgage backed securities. Given Secretary Paulson's earlier comments that an insurance program would not be adequate to address the problems in the marketplace, it is unlikely he would use this option. However, including it in the plan provides a fig leaf to those who indicated they would try to block the plan that appeared headed for enactment before Thursday's White House meeting.

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In a day of fast-moving developments there are some signs that discussions on a financial rescue package may re-start in a constructive way. According to Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), House Republicans have agreed to return to the negotiating table at the noon hour under the leadership of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO). To the extent the conversation is required to reach a compromise, this is a sign of progress in getting to a deal. Blunt will be bringing with him an outline of the House GOP plan to deal with the financial crisis. The key elements of that plan are the following:

• Federal insurance of mortgage-backed securities (in addition to the insurance already provided to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac products). Premiums paid by asset owners would support the program.
• Regulatory and tax relief for the financial industry (e.g ability to suspend dividend payments).
• A cut in the capital gains tax.
• Greater transparency in reporting of the types of assets held by financial institutions and greater SEC scrutiny of audit reports.

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