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After nearly three months of intense negotiations between the White House and Congress, President Obama signed into law yesterday the Budget Control Act of 2011 (S.365) (the “Act”), a bill that establishes a process for raising the $14.3 trillion statutory debt ceiling by at least $2.1 trillion and results in deficit reductions totaling at least $2.117 trillion over 10 years.

With the Treasury Department’s August 2 deadline for raising the nation’s borrowing capacity looming, President Obama and Congressional leadership in both chambers formulated a last minute compromise on July 31 that succeeded in averting an unprecedented and potentially catastrophic national default that threatened to destabilize both the U.S. economy and global markets.

In a pivotal House vote on Monday evening, 174 Republicans and 95 Democrats rallied to approve the Act by a vote of 269-161. Viewed by many as a test of House Leadership, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) were able to muster sufficient votes from their respective caucuses despite deep misgivings from Republicans who called for additional spending cuts and Democrats who called for a combination of spending cuts and revenue increases. On Tuesday, the Senate followed suit by passing the Act by a vote of 74-26, with 19 Republicans, 6 Democrats and 1 Independent voting in opposition.

Overall, President Obama and Congressional Democrats successfully secured debt limit increases large enough to extend through the 2012 elections, while Congressional Republicans were equally successful in preventing deficit reduction by way of revenue increases. However, the Act’s creation of a 12-member Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, tasked with reducing the deficit by at least $1.2 trillion through fiscal 2021 virtually guarantees that a thorny debate over the national debt—particularly as it relates to taxes and entitlement spending—will resume quickly when Congress returns from its month-long August recess.

Below is a summary of the key provisions of the bill:

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After nearly three months of intense negotiations between the White House and Congress, President Obama signed into law yesterday the Budget Control Act of 2011 (S.365) (the “Act”), a bill that establishes a process for raising the $14.3 trillion statutory debt ceiling by at least $2.1 trillion and results in deficit reductions totaling at least $2.117 trillion over 10 years.

With the Treasury Department’s August 2 deadline for raising the nation’s borrowing capacity looming, President Obama and Congressional leadership in both chambers formulated a last minute compromise on July 31 that succeeded in averting an unprecedented and potentially catastrophic national default that threatened to destabilize both the U.S. economy and global markets.

In a pivotal House vote on Monday evening, 174 Republicans and 95 Democrats rallied to approve the Act by a vote of 269-161. Viewed by many as a test of House Leadership, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) were able to muster sufficient votes from their respective caucuses despite deep misgivings from Republicans who called for additional spending cuts and Democrats who called for a combination of spending cuts and revenue increases. On Tuesday, the Senate followed suit by passing the Act by a vote of 74-26, with 19 Republicans, 6 Democrats and 1 Independent voting in opposition.

Overall, President Obama and Congressional Democrats successfully secured debt limit increases large enough to extend through the 2012 elections, while Congressional Republicans were equally successful in preventing deficit reduction by way of revenue increases. However, the Act’s creation of a 12-member Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, tasked with reducing the deficit by at least $1.2 trillion through fiscal 2021 virtually guarantees that a thorny debate over the national debt—particularly as it relates to taxes and entitlement spending—will resume quickly when Congress returns from its month-long August recess.

Below is a summary of the key provisions of the bill:

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With near-perfect unity, Senate Republicans joined their House counterparts this week in calling for significant structural reforms to the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). And unlike the House, the Senate can take hostages.

On Monday, 44 Republican Senators sent a letter to President Obama threatening to block any CFPB director nominee—regardless of party affiliation—unless their concerns regarding the new agency’s structure and lack of appropriate accountability mechanisms are addressed by Congress. Senators Scott Brown (MA) and Lisa Murkowski (AK) were the only Republicans not to sign the letter.

Specifically, the GOP letter calls for the adoption of reforms in three main areas, including:

• Leadership Structure - Alter the CFPB’s leadership structure from that of a single director to a board of directors, similar to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Federal Reserve Board, or Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). GOP senators expressed concern that Dodd-Frank “failed to provide any real checks on the CFPB director’s powers” by providing limited tools for Congress or the administration to remove a director for poor performance and granting the director with “unfettered authority” over the CFPB’s annual budget.

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Earlier today, President Obama signed into law the Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act—marking the completion of the legislative road and the beginning of the regulatory road for the financial reform bill that is now the law of the land.

In his remarks at the bill signing, the president thanked congressional leaders, praised the effort, and described the package as a "...set of reforms to empower consumers and investors, to bring the shadowy deals that caused this crisis into the light of day, and to put a stop to taxpayer bailouts once and for all."

The 2,300 page bill now falls into the hands of the Treasury Secretary and other financial regulators to execute. In the coming days and weeks, Financial Reform Watch will be "watching" for many things including whom the president nominates to be the head of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; when the first meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council will be scheduled; and which proposed rules begin to flow from the financial regulators tasked with implementing the mandates of the Dodd Frank Act.

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As expected, the Senate voted 60-38 this morning to invoke cloture on the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (H.R. 4173) conference report, setting up a final vote that is slated to occur around 2 p.m.

Republican Senators Scott Brown (MA), Olympia Snowe (ME) and Susan Collins (ME) joined all but one Senate Democrat – Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold – in voting to invoke cloture. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), the only other Republican to support H.R. 4173 in May, switched his vote to “no” due to concerns over the derivatives language, along with the spending offsets that were included during the later stages of negotiations.

Following the expected final passage of H.R. 4173 this afternoon, the bill will then be sent to President Obama, who will likely sign it into law sometime next week.
 

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By a vote of 237-192, the U.S. House of Representatives tonight passed the conference report for the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.  The Senate must also approve the legislation before it can go to the president for his signature. The Senate is expected to take up the measure when it returns from the Independence Day recess the week of July 12th.

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Beginning at noon tomorrow, House and Senate conferees for the financial reform legislation will return to the negotiating table for round two – this time with their attention fixed on the contentious Title 10, which props up a new regulator for consumer financial protection.

In preparation for tomorrow’s proceedings, House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) unveiled this afternoon the House’s proposals for amending the Senate language in regards to not only consumer financial protection, but also mortgage reform and predatory lending, and risk retention.

In a critical concession, Frank’s proposal would retain the Senate version’s placement of the newly-created Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) inside the Federal Reserve, a move that is likely to provoke disapproval amongst Frank’s Democratic colleagues who favor the creation of a stand-alone agency. Even Frank, himself, panned the idea of housing a new consumer regulator inside the Fed when it was first proposed in the Senate in March. But once again, Frank’s concession largely reflects the political dynamics in the Senate, where the creation of a stand-alone agency would likely unravel a fragile coalition of 60 votes required for passage.

Striking another controversial note, Frank defied long-standing White House objections by reviving language included in the House-passed version and offered as amendment in the Senate by Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) – but which did not receive a vote -- that would exempt auto dealers from the CFPB’s regulatory oversight. It remains uncertain whether the White House will continue to lobby against the provision during negotiations this week.

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 By a vote of 59 to 39, the Senate tonight passed the financial regulatory reform package it has been debating for the past few weeks.  Four Republicans -- Senators Chuck Grassley (IA), Olympia Snowe (ME), Susan Collins (ME), and Scott Brown (MA) -- broke ranks and voted with all but two Democrats to pass the bill.  The two Democrats who voted against the bill were Senators Russ Feingold (WI) and Maria Cantwell (WA).  The next step in the process will be reconciling the House and Senate-passed bills in a conference committee. The White House and Congressional leadership have said they expect to have the legislation ready for the president's signature by the Fourth of July. 

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Following financial regulatory reform's path in the Senate may require a scorecard. This coming Monday, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) plans to file his committee's report on the legislation it adopted before the spring recess. Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced that the Senate will begin floor debate on the bill starting next week. Meanwhile, Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) today unveiled her much anticipated derivatives bill, which her committee will markup next week. Reportedly, the current Lincoln bill does not reflect the negotiations she has been having with her Republican counterparts, and the legislation is likely to change significantly during next week's markup. Of course, the Agriculture Committee markup could end up like the Banking Committee markup with no amendments and a party line vote. It is too early to predict, but President Obama's threat today -- that he would "veto legislation that does not bring the derivatives market under control" -- signals that the White House is not looking to compromise.

Earlier today, it looked like Democrats would have been able to entice at least one Republican to help them break a possible filibuster next week. By this afternoon though, all 41 Republican Senators sent a unified letter to Reid opposing the Banking Committee bill and asking for support for the bipartisan negotiations several Senators have continued conducting.

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Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL) continue to work towards bipartisan agreement on at least some key elements of a financial reform measure. While the process has been a rocky one, both Senators appear to be working hard to find common ground. They appear to have found agreement on at least two things:

1. There will NOT be a stand-alone Consumer Financial Protection Agency.  Rather, consumer protections functions will be folded into another agency or agencies.

2. The president's proposal to limit the size of financial institutions (the "Volcker rule") has complicated the process and may have come too late in the game.

Our contacts on the Hill are telling us to expect committee action on a financial reform package by the end of the month. Regardless of the final outcome of the Dodd-Shelby discussions, the Chairman appears committed to moving ahead.

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Even Cabinet Members (maybe ESPECIALLY Cabinet Members) need an August break. Various media outlets have reported that Treasury Secretary Geithner delivered an expletive-laced tirade to the principal U.S. financial regulators during a meeting last Friday, in what sources say was a clear show of frustration over the internal opposition to some key elements of the Obama administration's financial regulatory proposal.

Fortunately, for inquisitive lawmakers, several of the meeting attendees were on Capitol Hill today to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on “Strengthening and Streamlining Prudential Bank Supervision,” including Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman Sheila Bair, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, Acting Director of the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) John Bowman and Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan.

Confirming the veracity of the reports, the regulators were also unwilling to soften their criticism, as Bair and her fellow regulators expressed sharp resistance to the administration's proposal to consolidate the bank supervisory functions of the OTS and the OCC into a new National Banking Supervisor -- citing concerns that unified regulation would undercut the interests of community banks and would do little to close the most glaring regulatory gaps that occurred in the non-bank, or "shadow," banking system.

After hearing from the witnesses, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) openly speculated about the administration's plan, commenting that it is “…a thoughtful proposal but I wonder if it is the right prescription.”  Then again, Dodd’s comments may offer more insight on where his mind has focused these past several weeks than about the financial reform outlook.

The House adjourned last Friday and the Senate will adjourn this Friday for the August recess. Dodd is going home to face some challenging poll numbers as he gears up his 2010 re-election campaign. The opinion landscape is shifting rapidly, and legislators may come back in September with some different notions than they left with in August. One thing is for certain, it is going to be a very busy fall.

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The Treasury Department today released draft legislation outlining a central pillar of the Obama administration’s financial regulatory overhaul: the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA), an independent regulator with broad authority over “any financial product or service” used by consumers. Seeking to clarify the administration’s June 17th white paper on financial regulatory reform, the legislation provides lawmakers and industry leaders with the statutory details regarding the proposed CFPA.

According to the draft language, in order to continuously monitor consumer risks, the agency—composed of a five-member board led by a presidentially-appointed director subject to Senate confirmation—would collect information related to loans, products, and services from both banks and non-banks. Additionally, consumer financial regulations that are currently divided among several agencies—the Federal Reserve, FDIC, Office of Comptroller of the Currency, Office of Thrift Supervision, Federal Trade Commission, and National Credit Union Administration—will be consolidated within the CFPA. The legislation would have these regulators transfer functions, rules, and employees to the new CFPA within six to eighteen months following enactment. The agency must research, analyze, and report on consumer awareness and understanding of financial products, related disclosure statements, related risks and benefits, and consumer behavior related to such products. The agency would also collect and track consumer complaints and create a new, integrated disclosure form for mortgage transactions, unless the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Fed can achieve the same goal prior to the transfer of such responsibilities to the CFPA. There are also provisions related to civil penalties and enforcement authority.

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Now that everyone has had a day or more to digest the Obama administration’s plan for Financial Regulatory Reform, suggestions, questions, and critiques are coming from all corners. Here is a sampling of the top issues under discussion.

Systemic Risk Regulator –

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), who sits on the Banking Committee, objects to the plan’s expansion of the Federal Reserve’s role in managing systemic risk, believing it would concentrate too much power in one entity. Warner instead proposes the establishment of a Systemic Risk Council comprised of the Treasury, the Fed, and the other financial regulators that would, together with a permanent council staff, be able to assess and minimize risks comprehensively across the financial landscape. The House Republicans also prefer the council approach, proposing their own version – the “Market Stability and Capital Adequacy Board”-- last week.

Tier I Financial Holding Companies --

What companies will be considered Tier I Financial Holding Companies and subject to new regulation by the Fed? The Fed and Treasury are to establish the criteria, but some companies that are not currently subject to federal regulation might include General Electric, Berkshire Hathaway, State Farm Insurance, or even WalMart. Those not used to federal regulation will be given five years to ease into the new regime – the non-financial activity restrictions in the Bank Holding Company Act.
 

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Last month we were entertained by a Financial Service Primer set in Winnie the Pooh’s Hundred Acre Wood. Since then, Christopher Robin has unveiled his big plan to reform the financial services markets.  Please click below to read about financial reform through a different lens.

Another Romp Through the Hundred Acre Wood

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President Obama today released the long-awaited proposal for reform of the regulatory structure overseeing the financial services industry. It is a sweeping proposal with broad implications for the entire industry. It reshuffles regulatory powers, combines some agencies, creates a new one and extends federal regulatory powers to products and firms which are currently not federally regulated or regulated at all. Congress, the industry,the media and other stakeholders are poring over the 85-page "white paper" describing the proposal. Click here to go to the document.
 

Brief Summary

1.      Avoid Future Systemic Risk/Promote Robust Supervision and Regulation – Raise capital and liquidity requirements for banks and systemically significant financial firms; establish a Financial Services Oversight Council of regulators to coordinate and prevent systemic risk; establish a new National Bank Supervisor in Treasury to oversee federally chartered banks; bring hedge funds and other private pools of capital into the regulatory framework; require public companies to hold non-binding say-on-pay shareholder votes and have independent compensation committees; review accounting standards; establish the Office of National Insurance within Treasury to enhance oversight of the sector.

2.      Reform the Structure of the Financial System – impose “robust” reporting requirements on issuers of asset-backed securities; reduce reliance on credit rating agencies; require the originator, sponsor or broker of a securitization to retain a financial interest in its performance; harmonize the regulation of futures and securities; safeguard payment and settlement systems; subject all derivatives trading to regulation; strengthen oversight of systemically important payment, clearing and settlements systems.

3.      Protect Consumers and Investors – improve the SEC’s ability to protect investors and establish a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency to identify gaps in supervision and enforcement; ensure the enforcement of consumer protection regulations; improve state coordination; and promote consistent regulation of similar products.

4.      Enable the Government to Manage Financial Crises -- establish a resolution mechanism, similar to the FDIC’s,  for non-bank financial firms and subject those whose failure could harm the financial system (Tier I Financial Holding Companies) to Fed supervision; require the Fed to get Treasury sign off when the Fed invokes its emergency lending authority for “unusual and exigent circumstances.”

5.      Improve International Supervision and Coordination – improve oversight of global financial markets; strengthen the capital framework; coordinate supervision of international firms; enhance crisis management tools.

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President Obama is today releasing his plan for a new regulatory structure to mitigate risk in the financial marketplace. Please click here to see the proposal from the Administration. Financial Reform Watch will be posting analysis shortly.
 

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Tired of being labeled as obstructionists, Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday issued their plan for financial regulatory reform. Led by the committee’s Ranking Minority Member Spencer Bachus (R-AL) and TARP Congressional Oversight Committee member Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), the Republican solutions stem from three principles – prevent any future Wall Street bailouts; stop the government from picking winners and losers in the financial system; and restore market discipline.

While the Republican plan does not address every issue -- most notably missing is insurance regulation – those included represent a consensus view within their caucus. Bachus described their plan as a “line in the sand” from which Republicans can negotiate with the Democrats. Hensarling, who before coming to Congress served on the executive compensation committee of a company publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange, was particularly critical of the latest push to regulate compensation. A better approach, Hensarling believes, is the creation of a new “Market Stability and Capital Adequacy Board,” which would be charged with flagging risky practices across the board. The Republicans offered as an example the practice of rewarding loan originators for loan volume with no regard to loan quality, saying that such a board would have been able to halt that.

The White House plans to release its comprehensive reform plan on June 17th. Will the Obama administration give a nod to bipartisanship by including a few elements of the Republican plan? Financial Reform Watch will compare and contrast the plans later this week.

Central Elements of the Republican Plan

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The Obama Administration took additional steps to rein-in executive compensation today by announcing the appointment of a "pay czar" at the White House and announcing proposed principles for regulating executive compensation where authority exists to do so. They also asked for legislation to advance the concept of giving shareholders a "say on pay." The suggested principles are not as prescriptive as some may have feared, but taken together, today's proposals and actions are generating some concerns about how the rules of the game are being changed.

Early in the day, Treasury Secretary Geithner unveiled the administration’s approach to regulating executive compensation practices at financial institutions and publicly-traded companies. In order to “encourage sound risk management” and to align pay practices with long-term corporate health, the administration laid out the following broad principles:

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Occasionally, the FRW team ventures out to take the pulse of the country on key issues coming up. Based on several days talking to journalists, business leaders, and government officials in California, we bring to our readers words of caution: the fiscal meltdown in California holds no small dangers for the recovery.

When California voters on May 19th rejected the key elements of the budget deal which averted disaster earlier in the year, top officials in Sacramento were sent back to the drawing board for an approach that will stave off a budget gap of more than 15 percent. With observers of the legislature saying that tax cuts, program cuts, and layoffs are all non-starters, where lies the answer?

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Call it green shoots or mustard seeds or hope, but according to some of the nation's leading economic experts, the outlook for the American economy is improving. These experts are venturing the opinion that the economy has hit bottom and the recession is ending. Some of the evidence cited is the fall in unemployment claims from March to April; the first quarter increases in consumer spending and consumer prices; and the stabilization in sales of existing and new homes over the past couple of months. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded optimistic (for a Fed Chairman) about the recovery. During testimony before the Joint Economic Committee this morning, Bernanke said, “We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year.” Although he qualified his statement as dependent on a restored and healthy financial system, that too could be interpreted as a positive sign since the Fed is supposed to go over stress test results with the affected banks today.

Bernanke did not comment on the test results, but media leaks suggest that ten of the 19 banks will need to find more capital. The results are not supposed to be publicly available until later this week, but markets rallied somewhat yesterday based on White House spokesman Robert Gibbs’ comments that the administration does not anticipate needing more financial bailout money from Congress and suggesting the banks will be able to raise private capital.

Since unemployment is a lagging indicator, most experts predict it will be a few months before people feel the effects of an economic upturn. If the economy is pronounced in recovery by the fall, it will be far enough into his presidency that President Obama will likely receive appreciable credit . The potential return to better times could add momentum to a major administration priority: health care reform. Despite the White House Chief of Staff’s strategy of capitalizing on a crisis, we suspect the White House will find it is much easier to score congressional victories when there is hope on the horizon rather than fear.

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There was plenty of activity in Washington this week but none of it enough to settle the roiling stock market, which keeps sinking like a rock. Is there too much activity or not enough of the right kind of activity?

From the White House and the Treasury—The Obama Administration released the details of its “Making Home Affordable” program, which was introduced in February. With incentives for mortgage holders and servicers, audit and documentation requirements, and qualification limits, major industry players such as the Mortgage Bankers Association and the American Bankers Association reacted positively to the new details.

From the Treasury—Secretary Tim Geithner was on Capitol Hill most of the week defending and explaining the president’s budget proposal, especially the $250 billion “contingent reserve” amount in the Treasury budget to support up to $750 billion worth of asset purchases. Geithner assured the Senate Finance Committee that the $750 billion is not an estimate of future rescue efforts, but rather “just a recognition of reality that it’s possible we’re going to need to do this with more resources.” The Secretary promised to provide more details in the coming weeks on future bailout efforts, including plans for the remaining $300 billion of TARP funds, and the eagerly anticipated public private partnership to take on troubled assets.

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Who appointed the G7 (+1) to its perch? The finance ministers for the main protagonists in World War II (1939-1945) met in Rome over the weekend to discuss the world economic crisis. Does a meeting of this nature that excludes India and China truly have a hope of wrapping its collective mind around the problems and their possible solutions?

Is ideology standing in the way of the most elegant solution to the U.S. banking crisis? Give former President George W. Bush his due: when the dimensions of the banking crisis became apparent to him, he scrapped a "market guy" ideology and poured taxpayer money into the banks. Is the Obama Administration willing to take what for them would be a similar ideological leap? Is their unwillingness to do so behind the complex public-private partnership at the center of the Geithner proposal to deal with troubled assets? Is there a similar reason behind the relatively light-handed approach Geithner would take to pushing the banks to resume lending?

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Next week President Obama and Treasury Secretary Geithner will unveil the administration’s broad financial reform agenda—a strategy to get credit moving again—but yesterday offered a preview as they unveiled new restrictions on executive compensation. The announcement was in direct response to public outrage over the use of taxpayer funds to subsidize “excessive compensation packages on Wall Street.” The president railed against “lavish bonuses” and a “culture of narrow self-interest and short-term gain at the expense of everything else.” It will be interesting to see if this policy, which could affect compensation policies at industry-leading institutions, will result in a reduction and/or restructuring of executive compensation throughout the financial services industry. Even though the new policy appears intended to have just such a leavening effect on compensation, President Obama tried to reassure free-marketers by saying: “This is America. We don’t disparage wealth…and we believe success should be rewarded.”  But he went on to say that executives being rewarded for failure, especially with taxpayer money, is wrong.

The Treasury executive compensation reform guidelines fall into three categories covering:

• all TARP recipients;
• participants in a “generally available capital access program,” such as the Capital Purchase Program; and
• institutions that receive “exceptional assistance,” such as Citigroup, Bank of America, and AIG. 

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On the first full day of the Obama Administration, key federal officials outlined a potential strategy for managing the government rescue of the financial sector. At his confirmation hearing today, Treasury Secretary-designate Tim Geithner told the Senate Finance Committee that the Obama Administration is considering the establishment of a “bad bank” or an “aggregator bank” that would take over the toxic asset-backed securities currently corroding the U.S. banking system. Several lawmakers have suggested the concept of a federally-operated entity modeled after the Resolution Trust Corporation, which, from 1989 to 1995, took over and liquidated 747 failed thrifts with assets of $394 billion. An aggregator bank would cost several trillion dollars according to various experts, including former Federal Reserve Chairman and current Obama economic advisor Paul Volcker.

Today Geithner assured the Senate panel that President Obama “will come before the Congress in the next few weeks and lay out to the American people a comprehensive plan to help stabilize the core of the financial system so that banks, which are so critical to our economy, are able to provide the credit necessary to get recovery going again.” He also promised to reform the TARP program with increased taxpayer protections, transparency, foreclosure mitigation for homeowners, and access to credit for small business owners.

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What will it take to jolt the U.S. economy back into shape? Congressional leaders have floated ideas for an economic stimulus package ranging from $500 to $700 billion. President-elect Obama is not espousing numbers yet but has assembled his economic team and charged it with developing recommendations for restoring economic growth and creating 2.5 million jobs. While serious rumors about his economic advisors started circulating last week, Obama officially presented the group at a noon press conference today:

• Treasury Secretary—Timothy F. Geithner, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and former long-time Treasury official
• Director of the National Economic Council—Lawrence H. Summers, former Clinton Administration Treasury Secretary and Harvard economist
• Director of the Council of Economic Advisors—Christina D. Romer, University of California at Berkeley economics professor
• Director of the Domestic Policy Council—Melody C. Barnes, former counsel to Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) and policy director of the Center for American Progress
• Deputy Director of the Domestic Policy Council—Heather A. Higginbottom, former legislative director and presidential campaign advisor to Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)

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In a further demonstration that the markets prefer certainty over uncertainty, the likely appointment of Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy F. Geithner as the next Treasury Secretary appears to have calmed the market’s fears to some degree, since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 6.5 percent at today’s close. Geithner has worked closely with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to address the financial crisis, and insiders predict a very smooth transition from Paulson to Geithner.

The issue of Geithner’s role with Paulson on the more controversial decisions, such as saving Bear Stearns while leaving Lehman Brothers to fail, has been the only point of criticism among otherwise glowing reviews. Geithner has led the New York Fed for five years, and prior to that directed policy at the International Monetary Fund and was a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. During the Clinton Administration, Geithner served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs. He served in various capacities at the Treasury Department from 1988 to 2001. While he represents change, Geithner brings a depth of Treasury experience that may be reassuring to many.

In other news, Congress left for the Thanksgiving holiday but first gave the Big Three automakers the homework assignment of "writing a plan for viability" by December 2nd. If the plans demonstrate that the domestic automakers would be a sensible, long-term investment for $25 billion worth of taxpayer loans, Congress will return to Washington on December 8th to pass auto bailout legislation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Congress will also begin work on an economic stimulus proposal that will be ready to go at the start of the 111th Congress.

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October 23 was a busy day for Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair. In the morning, she testified before the Senate Banking Committee and made headlines about what the FDIC is doing to assist homeowners avoid foreclosures. In the afternoon, she presided over an FDIC Board of Directors meeting wherein the board adopted an interim rule for implementing the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.

Under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA), the Treasury Secretary has authority to modify mortgage loans in order to prevent foreclosures. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd claims authorship of those provisions in the bill. However, in recent days, Congressional Democrats have complained the Bush Administration is putting too much emphasis on shoring up banks and not enough on helping homeowners directly. In fact, earlier in the week, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) wrote a joint letter to President Bush urging him to appoint Bair “to head a government-wide effort to supervise and coordinate” a foreclosure reduction program.

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Events of yesterday continued to demonstrate how major elements of the current financial crisis are interrelated. First, with the world waiting to see how a new administration in Washington will approach the financial crisis, President Bush's announcement of a November 15 summit of international leaders puts the discussion of a new regulatory regime for the financial sector squarely in the middle of the U.S. presidential transition. While both Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama praised the summit, it will present the winner of the November 4 election with an interesting quandary—how to participate in and/or react to the event. It may also force the hand of the President-Elect to name his economic team before the summit takes place. Doing so will allow the administration-in-waiting to have a more organized response to the events of the summit.

Second, the impacts of the financial crisis on the U.S. auto industry may be putting additional pressure on the $700 billion rescue package enacted on October 3. As potential car buyers continue to face a credit crunch, bipartisan leaders of the Michigan congressional delegation yesterday urged the Treasury to make a portion of the funds available to back auto loans. The request came from House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair John Dingell (D-MI) and Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI). If Treasury takes up that suggestion, funds available to supply capital to community banks or purchased troubled mortgages would be reduced.

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With the whole world watching, the House of Representatives this afternoon rejected the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA) by a vote of 228 to 205, after more than three hours of vigorous debate.

This is despite the fact that the administration lobbied hard for passage of the bill, describing the “profound and devastating” consequences of not passing the financial rescue legislation. The White House argued that the $700 billion should not be considered an expenditure, but as an investment that may be recouped in full or turned into a profit for taxpayers, considering that close to 90 percent of the mortgages backing these securities will not default and asset prices will inevitably rise after prices have been stabilized.

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Today is game day in the House of Representatives as members prepare to vote for or against the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 at 1 p.m. Early this morning, President Bush appeared before cameras at the White House, urging Congress to adopt the rescue plan, saying “Every member of Congress and every American should keep in mind, a vote for this bill is a vote to prevent economic damage to you and your community.”

The House went into session unusually early this morning to allow for three hours of debate on the bill. Speaker Nancy Pelosi had indicated yesterday that she would like to hold the vote as early as 11 a.m. The currently scheduled 1 p.m. vote suggests members needed more time to shore up support. One positive sign is that Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the ranking member of the House Budget Committee and a chief architect of the Republican alternative, has announced he will vote for the rescue plan.

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In a day of fast-moving developments there are some signs that discussions on a financial rescue package may re-start in a constructive way. According to Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), House Republicans have agreed to return to the negotiating table at the noon hour under the leadership of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO). To the extent the conversation is required to reach a compromise, this is a sign of progress in getting to a deal. Blunt will be bringing with him an outline of the House GOP plan to deal with the financial crisis. The key elements of that plan are the following:

• Federal insurance of mortgage-backed securities (in addition to the insurance already provided to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac products). Premiums paid by asset owners would support the program.
• Regulatory and tax relief for the financial industry (e.g ability to suspend dividend payments).
• A cut in the capital gains tax.
• Greater transparency in reporting of the types of assets held by financial institutions and greater SEC scrutiny of audit reports.

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Momentum continues to build for enactment of the $700 billion Administration plan to buy troubled assets from financial institutions. As an indicator of the increasingly upbeat mood around the package, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by over 200 points for the day.

As we write this, President Bush is meeting with Sens. McCain and Obama and Congressional leaders to discuss how to advance the plan. While this meeting is viewed by many as a sideshow, a forceful statement by the sitting president and the two men seeking to replace him will add to the overall sense that action on Capitol Hill is soon possible.

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There has been a seismic shift in Congressional attitude over the past 48 hours. Skepticism over the administration’s plan has evolved into hardened resolve to achieve consensus and pass a financial relief package as soon as possible. People are still reluctant to commit to a timeframe, but the pace has quickened. Whereas two days ago, Senate staff were waiting for their House counterparts to draft a plan, reports now indicate that both sides began working together yesterday to craft a single, unified plan.

Publicly, several lawmakers, including Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) and House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA), have said Congress and the administration are very close to striking a deal in the next “day or so.” At 10 a.m. this morning Frank hosted Dodd as well as Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, and Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, to continue drafting the plan. We have reports that the drafting session will expand to include others and will continue all day. Congressional leaders are working to have a consensus plan by today’s 4 p.m. meeting at the White House with President Bush and the presidential candidates.

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Spending their every waking hour on Capitol Hill trying to convince lawmakers to accept the financial bailout plan may finally be paying off for Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke. Reports coming out of meetings held this morning and early afternoon have been decidedly more upbeat than anything we have heard thus far.

In addition to testifying at hearings and briefing large groups, Paulson held a private meeting earlier with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH). While aides would not confirm whether the leaders and Paulson struck an agreement, there are signs the administration has made changes to the Paulson plan. In his House Banking Committee testimony this afternoon, close watchers noted that Paulson modified his remarks to allow for a compromise on limiting executive compensation as long as it does not "undermine the effectiveness of the program."

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Washington continues its bipolar approach to dealing with the Bush Administration's proposed plan to purchase, manage and sell troubled assets from financial institutions. Key leaders continue to work on the contours of a plan so that it can be voted on late this week. At the same time, rank and file Members, particularly on the GOP side, are turning up the volume on their objections. We continue to believe prospects are good for enactment of a plan to create a $700 billion investment to purchase assets. However it is clear that several pounds of flesh will be extracted from Secretary Paulson along the way.

Since yesterday, it has become more evident that executive compensation limits of some kind will be included in the final plan. The Administration still opposes this strongly, but they will have little choice but to accept it. Otherwise, there appears to be agreement on including outside oversight over Treasury on the program, protections against foreclosures on homeowners, and the option for Treasury to take warrants for stock from companies that sell assets to them.

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This morning’s Senate Banking Committee hearing was still continuing as the Bush Administration, House Banking Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA), and House leadership were making plans for an urgent briefing today at 4 p.m. to convince House members to agree to the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Press reports about this morning’s House Democratic and Republican conference meetings characterized members’ reactions as “resistant.” Our sources on the Hill and off are saying the meetings were worse than reported, and the mood at both was antagonistic. As of now, the House does not have anywhere near the 218 votes needed to pass the Treasury plan, even with Chairman Frank’s endorsement.

Members of the Senate Banking Committee, including Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), questioned whether the TARP could be funded in installments, precluding the need for Congress to authorize $700 billion in one lump sum. However, both Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and Paulson rejected the suggestion, saying that bolstering consumer confidence requires Treasury to have the full $700 billion authority, even if they do not utilize the entire amount. Both Paulson and Bernanke repeated on several occasions that lawmakers must not view the $700 billion as an expenditure, but as an investment that would be recovered – though perhaps not in full – over time.

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While congressional leaders and the Administration continue to make progress in developing a compromise $700 billion package to shore up the financial markets, this morning’s news is that skeptics in both parties are making their voices heard very strongly. This skepticism is not likely to derail the plan altogether, but it may slow its path to enactment.

Events in public and in private this morning have brought out the opponents of Secretary Paulson’s plan. A public hearing at the Senate Banking Committee began at 10 a.m. this morning and continues as this is written. At the hearing, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke emphasized the importance of quick action on the plan. He said financial institutions continue to be at risk and the pending plan will be important to staving off further failures. Secretary Paulson pressed again for a “clean” piece of legislation (meaning with minimal add-ons) but also telegraphed some flexibility on issues like oversight and mortgage assistance for homeowners. Members of the committee from both sides of the aisle hit the Administration hard for pushing a plan that appears to be a “blank check” for the Treasury Secretary.

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Congress and the Administration have made significant progress today in refining the proposal released Saturday by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson for a $700 billion purchase by the government of troubled financial assets. Prospects remain strong for Congress and the Administration to adopt a plan by the end of the week.

Between the release of the plan on Saturday and the opening of the markets today, Paulson made two important changes to his original plan. The first change was to broaden the class of assets eligible for purchase to include non-mortgage assets as deemed necessary. The second change was to allow foreign institutions with a significant US presence to participate in the asset purchase program.

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